As another Championship season closes, it is yet another in which Watford will record a midtable finish. For a third time since their relegation to the Championship in 2022, the Hornets have finished comfortably safe but a fair way adrift from the play-off places. In this article, we will look at what went wrong this season and what the future may hold for the Hertfordshire outfit next year.
Second-Half Slump Strikes Again
Watford moved into the play-off places on Boxing Day with a 2-1 win over Portsmouth: quite the way to celebrate the festive period. This was their 23rd match of the campaign and it marked an impressive first half of the season for the Hornets, in which they registered 11 victories – almost a 50% win rate. In the second half of the season, however, with one game left to play, they have managed just five victories. That is a serious drop off, and one which has ultimately cost the club a chance at Premier League football.
Unfortunately, this significant second half slump seems to be something of a recurring theme for the Hornets. Last season they won nine matches before Christmas, but just four times in the 23 matches that followed. What about 2022-23? A similar story once again as the Hornets picked up 10 wins in the first half of the campaign, compared to just six in the second half.
Even going back to their last season in the Premier League (2021-22), four of the six wins they managed came during the opening 12 matches of the campaign. Given how often this decline seems to happen, it seems a little more than a coincidence and something that will need fixing if Watford are going to push on next year.
Sometimes you can blame this type of slump on having an insufficiently large squad, which begins to tire as the season goes on. In the 2023-24 season, Watford were the club that used the fewest players in the Championship – just 25 all season. They rank mid-table on this stat this season, however, and actually topped the chart in the 2022-23 season with a whopping 40 players, so squad size is not always to blame.
So perhaps it is a mentality problem instead, but whatever it is, it seems to be a genuine issue for Watford.
Have Improvements Been Made Under Cleverley?
Although the second-half slump has given this season a disappointing feel, can it still be argued that Watford are heading in the right direction under Tom Cleverley? Although they could finish with a higher points total than last season, Watford appear to be a stagnating club rather than an improving one.
| Season | Goals Scored | Goals Conceded | Points | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-23 | 56 | 53 | 63 | 11th |
| 2023-24 | 61 | 61 | 56 | 15th |
| 2024-25 (one game remaining) | 52 | 60 | 56 | 13th |
Looking at this, the club are no better now than they were two seasons ago. You can argue Cleverley is beginning a rebuilding phase and may improve given more time, but whether he gets this remains to be seen.
Manager Merry-Go-Round Continues?
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) April 26, 2025
Whereas in previous years, Watford may have sacked their manager for a poor run of form that has seen the club collect a mere four points from the last available 24, they have opted to be more patient this time. There is justification for this too given that Cleverley is a young manager, still learning and one with a real connection to the club. Now, some Watford fans believe that this rarely seen degree of managerial stability is not proving beneficial and the club would be better off sacking the current boss for a more experienced manager. Others, however, still believe he is the right man for the job.
Whether Cleverley stays or goes in the summer is something of an uncertainty at present. A sacking is always a possibility at Watford but the young Englishman is also attracting interest from Norwich if reports are to be believed. If he does end up leaving, finding a replacement will be a tricky task as there is no obvious available candidate who looks able to push the Hornets to the next level.
Lack of Investment Continues
Without getting bogged down in the details of Watford’s finances, the current situation is that they have become a selling club with a very limited budget to spend on players. The figures below are provided by Transfermarkt.
| Season | Net Spend |
|---|---|
| 2024-25 | +€26.7m |
| 2023-24 | +€58.7m |
| 2022-23 | +€42m |
| 2021-22 | -€30.7m |
| 2020-21 | +€72m |
| Total | +€168.7m |
Over the past five years, Watford have earned in the region of £140m profit on selling players. Admittedly, some of these sales have gone to Udinese, another Pozzo owned club, but the vast majority have not. While Watford deserve praise for their ability to acquire talent cheaply before flipping them for a tidy profit, it does nothing to help the team on the pitch.
Admittedly, a lot of Championship teams do not have the luxury to go out spending on players before selling but this season, 11 teams registered a net loss in the transfer window and 12 the season before that. Additionally, few rarely make as much money as Watford do and the exceptions are usually one of the recently relegated sides.
Savvy activity in the transfer market has reduced the club’s debt from £115m to £72m, but austerity is set to continue, so fans should not expect the club to go out spending big in the summer. While it is still possible to make improvements on a limited budget, it does make the challenge of promotion significantly harder.
Championship Stability Ahoy?
As things stand, the most likely looking scenario for Watford is that they just remain a solid mid-table Championship club. Relegation is unlikely to be a concern, but escaping the division from the other end is simply a very difficult task, especially as recently relegated Premier League sides, accompanied by their large parachute payments, inevitably take up at least one space each year.
There are numerous examples of teams, lacking in real investment, just being stuck in the Championship for a long time. Bristol City, Preston and QPR have been involved in every Championship season since 2015, just to name a few. Although you cannot blame Watford fans for having loftier aspirations, they may have to settle for an extended stay in the Championship until they can attract further investment.
