Although it is extremely early days, you could forgive Watford fans for being relatively optimistic for the season ahead following their team’s strong start to the campaign. While it is important not to draw any strong conclusions from just three opening matches, we wanted to investigate how likely the Hornets’ good run is to last.
A Positive Start
I JUST CAN’T GET ENOUGH! pic.twitter.com/sJEjvmZxzo
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) August 17, 2024
Tom Cleverley’s side opened the season with a 100% record from their opening three fixtures. They began with a last-gasp 3-2 win over Millwall and followed it up by hammering MK Dons in the League Cup before another Championship win, an assured 3-0 victory against Stoke. That makes it three wins from three and an impressive 11 goals scored. Admittedly, five of the goals came at home against a League Two side but it is still a record Watford will take confidence from.
A Sign of Things to Come?
Watford fans may be expressing optimism about the season ahead but it will be cautious optimism in some cases. Across the last two seasons, the Hornets have enjoyed relatively positive starts but they have amounted to nothing. They suffered defeat in the first round of the League Cup on both occasions but in the Championship, things began brightly.
To start the 2022/23 season, a year Watford finished in 11th place, the Hertfordshire outfit spent their first five league games unbeaten. Not only this but they recorded victories over Sheffield United and Burnley, the two teams that went on to secure automatic promotion. A strong defence was key to this strong start as Watford shipped in just two goals across their opening five Championship fixtures.
The following year, Watford began the 2023/24 season with an emphatic 4-0 win over Queens Park Rangers. This was quite a way for Valérien Ismaël to announce himself to the home crowd in what was the Frenchman’s first competitive game in charge. Yes, it was only one game but it was the kind of performance that got fans excited as Watford were so dominant. They registered 13 shots on target to their opponent’s one and enjoyed 71% of the possession. You also have to factor in that QPR did the double over Watford during the previous season.
This outstanding performance proved to be something of a false flag event though as Watford failed to win any of their next four league games. It serves as a stark reminder of why you cannot draw any strong conclusions from such a tiny sample, no matter how good a team might look.
It is also interesting to note that the three times Watford have secured promotion to the Premier League, they have not begun the season in a particularly impressive fashion. In the 2005/06 season, they collected one point from the opening two matches. In 2014/15 they suffered a 3-0 defeat to Norwich in their second league match and in 2021/22, their second match saw them draw 0-0 against Sheffield Wednesday who finished bottom of the league.
Why Might Things Be Different This Year?
No stopping that pic.twitter.com/NUTmhnniXK
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) August 17, 2024
History tells us that when Watford are in the Championship, how the team starts does not tell us very much at all. While history does not point towards a continued strong start to the campaign, are there any reasons to think this might happen? After all, this is a team that, under Tom Cleverley, won just one of their final eight games of last season.
Watford may have finished last season quite poorly but the starting eleven that began this season is noticeably different. If you compare the final game of last season (3-2 loss to Middlesbrough) with the 3-2 win over Millwall, Watford are hardly recognisable. Only three players from the Boro defeat (Bachmann, Sierralta and Kayembe) found themselves in the starting line-up for the opening clash of this campaign.
Not only this but Kayembe has moved from a defensive midfield position to a more attacking one. It is a move that seems to be paying dividends too as the Congolese man found the net once against Millwall and twice against Stoke. Although it is early days, it looks like Cleverley might have discovered a new, more effective role for the 26-year-old, who has already almost matched his goal tally from last season (of five goals from 35 league games).
How Many Points Would Watford Need for Promotion?
Over the last decade, the average points total for clinching automatic promotion stands at 89 so Watford’s current total of six points so far is merely the start of what would be a very long journey. Should the Hornets clinch promotion via the play-off route instead, they will likely need more than 70 points to stand a realistic shot of making it. Interestingly, Tom Cleveley’s current record in the league as Watford manager puts them right on course for an automatic promotion spot though. After 11 league games in charge, his record reads four wins, five draws and two defeats (17 out of 33 points). This equates to 1.94 points per game which would leave the Hornets with a total of 89 points.
Maintaining this figure, especially for such a young manager, will be a big ask but the Championship has been known to produce a few surprises. Ipswich were 5/1 to claim promotion last season but did so convincingly with a 96-point haul, just one fewer than champions Leicester.
What Do the Bookies Say?
Watford began the campaign at a lengthy 12/1 to secure promotion to the Premier League, a much larger price than their odds of being relegated (9/1). Their great start to the season has seen their relegation odds increase to 11/1 (accurate at the time of writing), but there has been little movement with the promotion odds. Across the market, the Hornets still find themselves averaging around 11/1 to secure promotion while they are 33/1 to win the league.
Clearly, the bookies are doubtful that Watford can sustain their initial good form but Opta’s supercomputer is more optimistic about their chances. Originally, they predicted Watford’s most likely position as 15th but after two games their revised prediction has the Hornets in seventh, with a 25.7% chance of promotion. While this is much more promising, it would only take a small run of bad results for their forecast to change dramatically.
