At the start of the 2024/25 season, optimistic Watford fans might have dreamt of automatic promotion but the more realistic aim was a top-six finish and a spot in the playoffs. Since dropping down to the Championship from the Premier League after finishing 19th in the top flight in 2021/22, the Hornets have finished 11th and then 15th in the second tier. As such, even a playoff berth was probably on the optimistic side, but there were signs that Tom Cleverley might be the man to get the club back on the right path.
It certainly seemed that way when he led his team to three consecutive wins at the start of the season. That put them second in the table and the optimists went into overdrive, talking of a title challenge, even though two of the matches were at home and none was against teams expected to be in the promotion mix.
Results dipped somewhat after that but even so, a good run from late October until Boxing Day put them right back in contention for a playoff spot. They beat Portsmouth on the 26th of December to sit sixth in the table after exactly half of the season. Moreover, their form was strong, with six wins, three draws and just two defeats from their past 11 games. That brought in an average of just under two points per game, with that sort of accumulation often spoken about in relation to what is needed to finish in the top two of the Championship. As such, Cleverley’s side seemed well set heading into 2025.
Winter of Our Discontent?
If Hornets fans were feeling smug, through their hangovers, on Boxing Day, the festive period soon soured. They lost on the 29th of December at home against Cardiff, then went down to QPR on New Year’s Day, losing 3-1 to a side that at that stage were very much looking down not up. A 2-1 home defeat to high-flying Sheffield United was not, on the face of it, a disaster, but felt worse as the third of three consecutive losses.
A 1-1 draw with Cardiff at least stopped the rot, and was backed up by a good away win, 2-0 at Derby County. Watford came back down to earth on the 21st of January though, losing to Preston. Another home defeat, 2-1, means that the team have now taken just seven points from the past eight games. They have gone from almost two points per match to less than one and the owners, management and fans will be desperate for this poor run to stop.
The 2024/25 campaign still has lots to offer, with the Hornets just a point and two places outside of the top six. There are 18 games to go and 54 points up for grabs, and so this season could yet end with the playoffs and maybe even promotion. On the other hand, if results continue as they are, it will be a long, hard, cold, lonely winter of discontent.
Tough Fixtures Ahead
Tom Cleverley on this afternoon’s performance ️ pic.twitter.com/MRGDEqkxxA
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) January 25, 2025
Next up, on the 25th of January, Cleverley’s side travel to Coventry and if the home team win, they would move to within three points of Watford. The Sky Blues are 13th as things stand but will feel that they too can press on, finish the season well and perhaps make the top six. Away from home it will be a tough test and after that the Hornets play Norwich, who are currently 12th. They too will be dreaming of a strong finish and will provide a real challenge, though with that one taking place at Vicarage Road Hornets supporters will be hopeful of getting the win.
After those tough but winnable games come three really hard matches from which pessimists will be fearing the worst. The three clashes come in just eight days too, and see Watford travel to Sunderland on the 8th of February and Middlesbrough on the 15th. Sandwiched in between those games, against sides currently fourth and fifth respectively, there is a home game. However that comes against table-toppers Leeds United, who many believe are the best outfit in the second tier.
If Watford can come through those five games with at least six or seven points on the board, most fans would take that. A couple of wins and a draw, or something along those lines, would be enough to keep the team in the mix, with some more winnable fixtures ahead. However, if they were to stutter and fail to win either of the first two games mentioned, on paper much easier fixtures, it is entirely possible they could lose all of the following three.
Away Form the Issue
‘Orns on location pic.twitter.com/fs9OaWyMHu
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) January 25, 2025
There are so many ifs, maybes and different permutations but the simple reality is that there remains a long way to go before we can judge whether 2024/25 has been a successful season or not. In truth, even if the club finish outside the top six, if they were to finish eighth perhaps and miss out by a few points, it would feel like progress after two poor campaigns in the Championship.
Whilst we do not know how things will play out in the weeks ahead, what we do know is that away form must improve. After the trio of tough fixtures mentioned above, Watford will have a relatively easy run-in, with trips to West Brom and Blackburn, as well as the visit of Burnley, the only games that fans will eye with much trepidation. But no matter how “easy” a game looks, such is the away record of Watford thus far that any game on the road looks a little daunting.
At home they have won 29 points from 14 games, but away they have just 12 from the same number of fixtures. The issue has chiefly been at the back, with 27 goals shipped on the road, compared to just 12 at Vicarage Road. They have managed just three wins, losing eight times, and if this season is to end well, Cleverley must find a way to tighten up away from home, even if it means earning some ugly 1-0 wins. Let’s hope he can find a way to do it!