At the time of writing, there are just eight games left of the regular Championship season but fans of many clubs will be hoping for at least an extra two and hopefully an extra three. It is mathematically impossible for Watford to finish in the top two and claim automatic promotion to the Premier League this term. Even with 24 points to play for, there are already three teams beyond their reach.
In reality, a place inside the top six and a shot at the play-offs has long been the best that the Hornets could hope for. If Tom Cleverley can guide the club there he will have done very well this term, all things considered, but as we enter the business end of the campaign, how realistic a goal is that?
10th in a Very Tight Table
With the international break in full swing, Watford sit 10th in the table but there are only 10 points between Coventry in fifth and Norwich in 13th position. The Canaries would have to go some to make the play-offs but they can’t be ruled out just yet in our opinion. And so that certainly means that the Hornets remain in the hunt.
The clubs in fifth, sixth and seventh have established a little bit of a gap over the chasing pack but it is far from a case of two from those three. Coventry and the Baggies are the teams currently occupying those all-important spots, with Sunderland perhaps the only team we can say with certainty will be in the play-offs.
The Black Cats are 12 points clear of seventh-placed Bristol City but 11 points adrift of the automatic places. One of table-topping Leeds, Sheffield United or Burnley will also be in the play-offs but it would take a brave fan to say which, with the battle for the top two set to go to the wire.
| Rank | Team | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leeds United | 80 | +51 |
| 2 | Sheffield United | 80 | +25 |
| 3 | Burnley | 78 | +41 |
| 4 | Sunderland | 69 | +18 |
| 5 | Coventry | 59 | +7 |
| 6 | West Brom | 57 | +14 |
| 7 | Bristol City | 57 | +8 |
| 8 | Middlesborough | 54 | +9 |
| 9 | Blackburn Rovers | 52 | +2 |
| 10 | Watford | 52 | -4 |
| 11 | Millwall | 51 | -2 |
| 12 | Sheffield Wednesday | 51 | -6 |
| 13 | Norwich | 49 | +6 |
So, as we can see, Cleverley’s men are five points behind two teams and seven points behind another. The fact that there are so many teams above them means that they will need to go on a really special run between now and the end of the regular season. It is possible, though very unlikely, that all of the clubs above them will see a major dip in form and results but really Watford are going to have to win a big majority of their remaining games if they are to extend their campaign.
How Many Points Will Be Needed to Make the Play-Offs?
“We’ll have to have all our battling qualities on show.”
TC’s take on the opposition ️ pic.twitter.com/ZEPHZCDnOw
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) March 15, 2025
We can look at seasons gone by to give us an indication, whilst we can also analyse the tallies of the teams at the top and their remaining fixtures but clearly nobody can say with much certainty how many points will be needed for a top-six finish this term.
Last year Norwich finished sixth with 73 points, three clear of Hull, whilst 12 months before that just 69 was enough for Sunderland, who edged out Blackburn on goal difference. In 2021/22 Sheffield United and Luton finished fifth and sixth respectively on 75 points, five ahead of seventh-placed Boro. Rewind a further 12 months and Bournemouth had 77 points in sixth, seven more than Reading.
The average points tally of the sixth-placed side over those seasons was 73.5. If we look at the current rate of points accrual of Coventry, West Brom and Bristol City, that sort of mark looks about right, or perhaps a little on the high side. What’s more, with the table so tightly packed and the points perhaps more evenly shared out this term, there is further reason to believe that 72 or 71 or maybe even 70 might be sufficient this time around.
What Does that Mean for the Hornets?
With eight games to go, Watford have taken 52 points from their 38 games. That means they have earned 1.368 points per game on average. Over the course of a 46-game season, that would leave them on 63 points and almost certainly well short of a spot in the play-offs.
That doesn’t really tell us anything unexpected though because we know they are down in 10th, five points shy of the Baggies who currently occupy the last available play-off place. We know they have work to do, but what is required in the final couple of months of the campaign?
Well, if we assume an optimistic tally of 71 points might be enough, they would need to take 19 points from their final eight games. That would be a tough task for sure, equating to six wins, a draw and just one defeat. The maximum they could end with would be 76 and that would probably be enough but would need them to string together eight wins on the bounce. In the unlikely event that they can somehow do that, they would certainly head into the play-offs with immense confidence but a more realistic aim would be to try and win at least six of their remaining matches and see where that takes them.
Remaining Fixtures
Watford’s potentially key games can be seen below:
- 29th March – Plymouth (24) at home
- 5th April – Bristol City (7) away
- 8th April – Hull (19) at home
- 12th April – West Brom (6) away
- 18th April – Burnley (3) at home
- 21st April – Portsmouth (17) away
- 26th April – Blackburn Rovers (9) away
- 3rd May – Sheffield Wednesday (12) at home
NB – number in brackets is the team’s current Championship position.
Watford have a mix of fixtures, with four games against sides currently above them and four versus ones beneath them. With only one clash against the division’s outstanding three clubs, this is not a bad way to end the season. Moreover, the fact that they will face three of the four sides directly above them could well be seen as a positive.
If they can be West Brom, Bristol City and Blackburn, they will seriously hurt the play-off hopes of those three clubs. They are effectively play-off six-pointers and will all be mini-cup finals. Unfortunately for the Hornets, however, all three are on the road. Given the club’s relatively poor away record thus far, it is hard to see them taking the points they need from those clashes.
Ultimately, we feel Cleverley’s men will come up just short this term. They might scrape five wins at a push but realistically we expect them to finish with around 65 points, and we doubt that will be enough. Let’s hope they can prove us wrong!
