Having entered the 2023/24 campaign with dreams of promotion, it’s fair to say that last season was something of a damp squib for the Hornets. Finishing six points above the drop zone and a yawning 17 points adrift of the promotion places, the Vicarage Road faithful were no doubt relieved to see the campaign come to an end with their Championship status intact.
However, there were some positives towards the end of the campaign following the appointment of Tom Cleverly as interim head coach. The latest beneficiaries of the “new manager effect” following the departure of Valérien Ismaël, Watford kicked off with a 1-0 at Birmingham and went on to lose only once in their final seven matches. That represented a marked improvement on all that had come before and was enough to earn Cleverley the job on a permanent basis. Could the man who made 187 appearances for the club as a player be the one to turn things around from the dugout?
Continued Lack of Investment
The accusation of a failure to reinvest funds has been levelled at the Watford hierarchy in recent years. Earning the best part of £40m through the sales of João Pedro and Ismaïla Sarr, barely 10% of that was reinvested in the squad ahead of the 2023/24 campaign. A section of the fanbase considered that to be a significant influence on the poor performance on the pitch.
Fast forward to the 2024/25 summer transfer window; would the board back the new man in the hot seat? Not really, with the window following a similar pattern to the previous year. Yáser Asprilla and Ismaël Koné were the men to depart this time around for a combined fee of around £25m.
In fairness to the club, Watford were certainly active over the summer but a total outlay of £2.7m on permanent deals again paled in comparison to the sum gained through sales. The veterans Moussa Sissoko and Angelo Ogbonna added experience to the squad, but if Cleverley is to enjoy a successful season, he must unearth a gem or two amongst the raft of loan signings and low-cost youngsters.
Much Improved Results
Consecutive home clean sheets pic.twitter.com/jkZCAnWbJ9
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) November 9, 2024
On paper, Cleverley doesn’t have a vastly superior squad to that of his predecessors. However, despite his inexperience in senior management, he has set about squeezing the most out of the players he has at his disposal.
34-year-old Moussa Sissoko appears revitalised in his second spell at the club. Starting 12 times, the Frenchman has proven to be a driving force from midfield. The signing of Vakoun Bayo from Udinese has also proven to be a smart piece of business, with the Ivory Coast forward topping the Watford scoring charts with six strikes.
Results Trending Upward
Displaying levels of pace and athleticism lacking in recent seasons, Cleverley has Watford playing some great stuff at times. Solid performances don’t always equate to results. Happily, in Watford’s case, the visual impression has been backed up by a much-improved league position.
Flying out of the traps with a 3-2 win at Millwall, they backed that up with home victories over Stoke and Derby to pick up maximum points from their first three outings. Then came their first blip. Defeats at Sheffield United and Norwich sandwiched a home draw with Coventry to see Watford slip back in the pack. Could we be in for another season of yo-yoing results and midfield mediocrity?
It’s hard to say for certain at this still early stage. Results since that loss at Norwich have been a little up and down. Since the Carrow Road disappointment, Watford have picked up five wins and four defeats. Low points came in 3-0 losses at Luton and Preston, with the highlight to date being a 6-2 battering of Sheffield Wednesday at Hillsborough – a game in which Vakoun Bayo hit four goals.
Despite their in-and-out form, Watford currently occupy sixth spot in the table as we head into the international break. Six points off the top spot and 10 points clear of the drop zone, it seems reasonable to expect a better season than 2023/24 at the very least.
Can Watford Maintain Their Position?
Whose reaction is your favourite? pic.twitter.com/DmR6pPAFyS
— Watford Football Club (@WatfordFC) November 8, 2024
Apparently playing with far more confidence and organisation, of course, Watford CAN maintain their position. However, whether they will – in a division of such rapidly changing fortunes – is difficult to predict at this stage. If the Hornets are to maintain their playoff position, or possibly challenge for one of the automatic promotion positions, there are certain areas which stand out as having room for improvement.
Away Form Needs to Improve
Thus far, Watford have been exceptional in front of their own fans. Undefeated in seven outings at Vicarage Road, with a +8 goal difference, the only slight blip came when held to a draw by Coventry City. That excellent record sees Watford sitting second, behind only Leeds United, in the Championship table based on home matches alone.
With the exception of that goal fest at Hillsborough and the opening-day success at The Den, Cleverley has struggled to find the winning formula on his travels. Beaten at Sheffield United, Norwich City, Preston, Luton, Leeds, and Swansea, a tally of six points from eight away fixtures places Watford 17th in the away table. All of which equates to automatic promotion form at home, but borderline relegation on the road.
xG Suggests Watford Are Overachieving
15 games is a relatively small sample size, but the expected goals (xG) numbers suggest that Watford are possibly flying a little higher than their performances merit. Watford have picked up 25 points to date – six more than the expected goals points tally of 19.
If regressing to their xG points per game total of 1.27, Watford will end the campaign on 58 points. Looking back at the past three seasons, that tally would have resulted in finishing positions of 14th, 15th, and 17th. All of which leads to the question, “Have Watford actually improved?”
A positive view would suggest Watford are likely to improve as the season progresses as the squad becomes more accustomed to the Cleverley way. Alternatively, unless the side can greatly improve their away form and underlying performance measures, they will do well to hang onto their current playoff position. Only time will tell.
